US Dollar movements in the short to mid term

US Dollar

US Dollar is potentially still remain moving in the upward parallel channel.
In addition, US Dollar is coming close to a range of good support levels from the 200SMA to the confluence levels highlighted in red.

Should the US Dollar rebound higher, it would be a positive note and will act as a catalyst for market indices to go higher.

FX analysis - Week 290713 - 020813

Last week the USD broke the 8200 level after testing it a few times.
This week I expect the USD to retest the 8200 level as a resistance before falling further.

For the FX majors, I expect
1) EUR/USD to retrace to 1.318 before attempting any longs to follow the trend
2) GBP/USD to retrace to 1.53 before attempting any longs to follow the trend
3) AUD/USD remains range bound between 0.900 to 0.935. Will have to be careful if the range is broken.
4) USD/JPY to fall further to between 97.0 - 97.5 level.
5) USD/CHF remains supported by the Fib786 at around 0.925.

Volatile week ahead with US Q2 GDP and NFP data coming.
Good luck and be safe.

Notes for FX Majors for Week 220713 - 260713

- Could be potentially have a short-term upside for both EU and GU to test 1.32 and 1.53 respectively before falling.

- As for AU, it is most likely to be falling to retest the support of around 0.9 level. It remains range bound and resisted by the falling channel.

- USD/JPY, it seems like more upside is coming. However, how the election results will affect the Japanese Yen is still a mystery.

- For the Dollar against the Swiss Franc, it definitely looks like it will be heading down in the short-term to test the level of around 0.935. On the mid-term, Usd/chf looks like it will move up higher.


** The US Dollar Index do looks like it will move lower to test the 82.00 level. So the views above for EU, GU and UC are pretty much in line.

Key notes for up coming week of 29/04/13 - 3/05/13

Hi all,

Do take note of the labour day on Wednesday. So if you're are Singapore stocks trader, maybe you would wan to reduce your trading sizes. Personally, I feel that  a mid-week holiday is not good for trading.

I know I have been forex bias in my posting. So I decided to post some views on the Singapore stock market.

STI - It broke out of the recent peak of 3330 and managed to closed above it. However, the price target of 3353 is met, so any upside could still be limited. In order for STI to go higher, Singapore markets might look at the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE). So for now, I would not suggest buying any blue chips counters.
As for pennies, I do not really study them, so I cannot really advise on them.

SSE - I remain bullish on this index in the short to medium term. SSE managed to hold well at current levels despite the negative numbers coming out from China. SSE is currently at the 200MA again. If this breaks, the next support will be 2140 as per mentioned in my previous post.

US Dollar - US dollar could be heading south in the short-term but in the longer term I still remain bullish. There numerous reasons such as the removal of QE or even increase of interest rates should the US economy improve but these monetary policies would not be implemented unless there are significant progress in the economy. US economy is still pretty much affected by the instability of the Europe economy especially when the numbers for Germany economy is not so good.

Currency Pairs
EUR/USD - Uncertain.
GBP/USD - Should be heading higher and hitting around 1.56 area.
AUD/USD - Short-term wise could be heading downwards, but still remain rangebound so could rise back to 1.05 area again.
USD/CHF - Short-term downside but will be rising to hit 0.95 area.
Yen pairs - All are consolidating.

I didn't have time to post charts. Hope you all understand. Will do the charts once I have a break which will be after my exams (After June).
Good luck in all your trading.

US Dollar daily chart

The US Dollar seems to be trading within a trading range for the past few months and currently is at the support of the channel.
This support of the channel could also potentially be a Head & Shoulder neckline as well.
So as of now, we have to see where the USD will be heading towards, which can likely to determine where the global financial markets is heading too.