Possible resistance levels for some recovery before seeing a further downside. (24/10/12)

1) DJ30 - 13230-13270
2) EU - 1.3015 - 1.3030
3) GU - 1.5990 - 1.6005
4) UJ - 79.90 - 80.05

Market Rebounded.

Like I posted last Thursday on twitter the following.

I saw alot counters on support and including STI itself.
It has been some time I last looked at the stock market.
So when I post something about the stock market, it is likely to be good. :)

So create a twitter account and start following me.

Market is volatile now.

Now the situation for short-term looks bearish again after show signs of bullishness last week.

Those who trades DJ30 will know that it gap up to 12800 yesterday on early trading and it trend all the way down thereafter - that means its a 400points sell down.
However, DJ30 did a 800points rally before 400points sell down, could it be a profit taking only?
Currently, DJ30 is consolidating at 12400 - a good support level.

Tonight will be the Bradley Turn Date.
Will Dow Jones bounce off support and turn higher?
We shall see.

At this juncture, trading stocks will be difficult because there are many gaps happening.
You can be in the money (ITM) but a gap against you will eat up your profits and sometimes become losses.

Level to watch out will be 2700 for STI.

Market expectations

Wrong call on putting out shorts yesterday. Sorry for those who followed, I also cut quite some losses.

Market is still expecting something from Bernanke tonight. Like some stimulus plans - QE3?
But at the same time being cautious too after many disappointment in the past.

The chart development in DJI looks bullish for now, and for might not follow the bear flag that I previously mentioned about.
It looks like a dump then pump effect.
DJI next level to watch out will be 12650 resistance. That will really depend on tonight's speech.

Personal opinion will be that the market is going to move much higher - seems like the condition is changing and the BBs seems like they almost done with their shorts covering and enter some longs already.

Recap + some predictions

Posted on 31/05/2012 @ 2246hrs

Some counters need confirmation for Long Entry

1) CapMallsAisa - Bullish engulfing

2) Singtel - Bullish engulfing

3) STX OSV - Bullish piercing pattern

I believe there's no confirmation as of 1532hrs.

Posted on 31/05/2012 @ 2246hrs

Careful Biosensors, it looks like a short to me.

It fell big with high vol.

Advice: Can enter small shorts and add when it goes lower?

Safe entry price will be 1.165 to short.

Biosensors still look weak and not moving up. But I'm not vested.

Prediction for the market next week

The strength is clearly on the bears side.

Dow Jones need to be above 12400 in order to have a change of trend to the upside.

Tonight we will ALOT crucial data coming from the US markets such as unemployment rate, Non-farm payrolls, ISM manufacturing data. There are few more average importance data coming out as well.

Refer to my link title "Updated data and live quotes" provided at the sidebar. Scroll to the bottom of the page to see the timing of the data(s).

Review + Observations at night

We will see some panic selling today.

For intraday traders, any rebound is a short.

However, panic selling also mean to go long in psychology view.

So, I recommend to look to long small and try to get the lowest price. :)

Posted before trading starts.

I could be wrong, looks like there isn't much panic selling and the support at around 2760 looks strong. Not looking to short.

Posted @ around 10am.

Today was a rather confusing day, I was expecting some panic selling but it gaped down to the strong support and wasn't moving lower.

But somehow or other most counters went higher for the rest of day, esp some counters like Cosco, RafflesMG, STX OSV, CapmallsAsia, etc etc.

Managed to somehow get it correct?

DAX breakdown into the red region. Doesn't look too good for the markets. But DJF still quite strong. Hopefully DJF for tml will be able to hold us up.

Posted yesterday night

Watch SSE & HSI for clues - maybe they are able to pull us up.

(Posted @ 0905hrs)

Some observations I spotted.

Shipping & commodities are rebounding quite strongly.

However, some sectors like Oil&Gas, financials and properties are not moving much.

Conclusion: I suspect this just a technical rebound for those counters that fell badly (short coverings). And possible window dressing before June-July (quiet trading months).

But if there are short coverings by the BBs, could also mean that they might be longing the market soon.

Disclaimer still applies.

Not showing off but just happy to get it right

1) Speculation view for Monday: Markets will turn to US futures & European markets for signs. Knowing that US markets closed weak on Friday but I presumed it's already factored.

Posted during the weekends.

STI might fall on opening and rise back throughout the day.

Posted just before STI opens.

I won't always make accurate calls, so remember to do your own analysis before taking my analysis into account & disclaimer applies. :)

Quiet market

948am now.
Market gapped up and fell slowly.
It seems that most retailers are not willing to hold any positions over the weekend and staying away from the markets because on Monday US markets will not be opened.

At least that's what I see in Sembcorp, Sembmar, OCBC, CityDev, Genting and the list goes on.

Any positions please set your stop loss at the Friday's low (long positions) & Tuesday's high (short positions).
Althought best is just stay away.

Anyways, FirsRes was a good short. Too bad I missed this boat. Congrats on anyone who shorted. :)

Overall market sentiment is weak & mixed

The overall market sentiment is really weak by looking at the buying pressure of the market.
I suggest to not do anything, at least till European markets open and the data(s) are out.

But I probably doing some longs since the Risk:Return is good.

Long counters that I'm looking at are
1) FNN
2) SembCorp

Why I'm not looking to short because most prices have already fallen and is near the crucial support.
That's why I only shorted yesterday but not doing any more shorts - except intraday short like Sakari.

Another wave of selling could be around the corner

Today we witness another wave of selling in the markets which completely washed all the gains we made yesterday. To me, this isn't a good sign.

Furthermore, I don't feel that there's any panic selling yet - maybe except for commodities.

Watch for break down of STI at 2761 or break up if STI 2832. You all should know what I mean. :)

Congrats to those who shorted when I post at the side that shorting has a better probability than longing.

But nothing is confirmed until your positions are closed and money is safe inside the pockets.

I know commodities and shipping sectors has fallen quite badly, so its difficult for us to short something that is already very low. So I give some counters to watch out if really break down.

Counters to look out for

1) The 3 banks

2) First Res

3) Kepcorp

4) Sembmar

5) Sembcorp (This counter looks slightly stronger but might be dragged)

6) F&N

I believe all these are enough for you huat big if it really managed to break down. 

Breaking down of 2761 should send STI to around 2680 level (+/- 20points).

DISCLAIMER APPLIES ARH!

Just a thought to all readers

We know that markets are currently in the oversold region & a rebound might be coming soon.
I believe everyone still remember clearly that earlier this year we have a super duper strong bull rally, and it was in the overbought region for almost a month or so.
So, even though we are in oversold region, it doesn't mean it can't stay oversold and doesn't mean markets can't fall further.

My advise is to not bottom pick any counters, especially those very weak ones - commodities & shipping.
Watch for banks & marines.
However, on a longer time frame I'm seeing banks and marines to fall as well.

So if the rebound is weak, I'm going to short it further.
I remain a small bull & big bear.