It has been awhile...

It has been almost 2 years from my last post.

Decided to do this post because everybody is writing about the recent crazy volatility in the financial markets, so I shall follow suit.

So the key question in everyone's mind - ARE THE MARKETS TURNING BEARISH?

My answer will be it will short to mid-term bearish but longer term trend is still quite bullish though the tide could be changing.

Why? The answer is all in the below DJ30 (Dow Jones) chart.

DJ30 Weekly

One simple question - Does this weekly chart look bullish or bearish? Even beginners will know the answer. So there you go.

I have been expecting a correction for this major uptrend but honestly speaking I was not expecting DJ30 to have a drop of more than 1000 points in a day. Perhaps this major fall is because of the break of the weekly upward trendline accompanied by global fears on slowdown in the 2nd largest economy, China.

Nevertheless, the DJ30 has moved more than 12k points (or approximately 400%) from the lowest in 2008. So this correction is long overdue. The most significant correction throughout the last 6-7 years was only the one in year 2011.

Ok. So enough about the historical introduction. Let's analyze what I expect to happen going forward.

1. Most likely we would not be breaking new highs (at least for till end of 2015) and so a lower high is expected.
2. Volatility will continue and investors are escaping leading to panic selling, which even the slightness clue of weak economy will lead to more selling.
3. Strong resistance between 16300 to 16500.
4. Going lower, target will be 14700 to 15300, with 15300 being a very strong support currently.
5. Limelight continues to be with China and perhaps US rate hike (though factored in already).

I shall briefly cover where EUR/USD is heading towards as well.

As shown in the chart below, EUR/USD is in a downward parallel channel for a very long period of time and it has bounced off from the lower trendline.

Due to fact that the below chart is a monthly chart, the key resistance and supports identified cannot be taken with a pinch of salt. Going north, resistance will be at 1.18 to 1.19 region as it was a key support region many years back and the Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% will be located there as well.

EUR/USD Monthly

The views above is quite long-term but we are very close to the key resistance levels, thus it is worth to highlight. Short to mid-term wise, I'm expecting EUR/USD to retrace slightly especially after the massive buying and thereafter the bullishness will likely to continue.

Lastly, on the Singapore STI. My personal view is that Singapore stock markets remained very week as compared to the foreign markets, especially in industries relating to shipping and oil. Some observations I have 'felt' from the Singapore markets.

1. Labour market seems to be tightening a fair bit.
2. Economic data are not impressive especially with much more spending from the Government on SG50 and election year.
3. And technically on the index itself, we are so close to the 2011 lows.

All the above are my personal views and disclaimer applies.

Trade safe and huat!

Charts analysis 19-10-13

Dow Jones is currently consolidating within a very wide range of around 1000 points. Unless a breakout happen, it will be better to be doing range play. And it is pretty obvious that DJ is at a high region, although it has potential to go towards 16k however please exercise caution on taking huge long term positions in the equity markets now.

STI does have a head & shoulders (HNS) pattern that is developing and prices is near the neckline which could act as a resistance area. Aggressive traders could look for a potential close above 3255 and considering longing it, else a close above 3275 would be safer. On another note, STI hns pattern is formed at the top, therefore the probability of it working out is much lower.

The 3 Singapore bank counters are moving pretty much in the same boat, with all consolidating within a symmetrical triangle and it might take some time before breaking out either side. Among the banks, DBS is stronger technically, with prices remaining above 20, 50, 100 & 200 moving average. So if one is to invest, pick the stronger one.

Kepcorp currently do have a HNS pattern forming and prices are exactly at the neckline and with the 200 moving average acting as a resistance. Should prices close above 10.92, chances for it to move towards 11.2x will be highly likely.

Investment Opportunities (Long-term)
The following counters are the ones I recommend for one to include in their portfolio for long term investments.
1) Biosensors - hitting my 50% discount mark and long-term fundamentals remain sound
2) Cosco Corp - Shipping counters took a hit and have not recover significantly since 2008. I understand Yangzijiang has ran and NOL is much weaker in fundamentals therefore Cosco could likely be the better choice. Shipping businesses will pick up when the global economy starts to grow further.
3) Suntec Reits - Suntec Reits has been giving slightly lower dividend due to the upgrading that it has been doing at its exhibition halls and rents could be much greater after the upgrading projects are done.
4) Sabana Reits - Sabana Reits remains as an attractive reits investment due to its high dividend yield (approx 8% p.a). Chances are that price equilibrium might occur and pushing its price up and making its yield to 6-7%.

Please note that all these analyses are my personal opinions and do please consult your authorized stock brokers for advice and trades.

SGX Stock Analysis

Straits Times Index

The STI has been falling since 22 May and from the high of 3464.79 to the low formed on 21 June 3065.42. Basically, the STI has lost over 400 points within a month.

The question now is where will be a good level to long stocks that are highly correlated to the STI or even trading the STI itself?

Based on the Fibonacci figures, there is a strong confluence of levels of the longer-term 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the short-term 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. That gives us the level of near 3000. In addition, the 61.8% Fibonacci projections (purple lines) also give a figure of 3005. Lastly, the 3000 level is a psychological round number figure, which increases the probability of this level.

Despite the strong recovery of STI on Friday, I am seeing more downside for STI next week or even the next few weeks. It will be good that a significant reversal candlestick appears at the confluence of 3000, then we should really consider taking the trade to the long side.

Generally, the trend for STI is still bullish but with the lower highs formed it gives a short-term bearish pattern. And for the long-term trend to stay bullish, it will be best that STI do not break the 2930 level.

To conclude, generally the blue chips counters such as the three bank counters are most likely to reverse along with the STI, therefore we should be more focused on the STI to get clues to when should we start entering for longs.

Sembcorp Marine

SembMar looks pretty interesting in its chart formation. A symmetrical or descending triangle in the making with the level of around 4.08 holds the critical key to whether SembMar will collapse or keeping it afloat to go higher.

SembMar movements is critical in making or breaking the STI in the near future.

Keppel Corp

KepCorp also looks pretty critical in the making or breaking of STI. It has been trying to stay above the rising trend line (brown line) to prevent it from falling more substantially which could translate into further downside in the STI.

In my opinion, I think the trendline is not likely to hold it based on my views of the STI of having more downside. And if this holds true, KepCorp is most likely to come down to the round number of 10.00 or even 9.60 where a greater confluence of levels can be seen.

NOL

Among the shipping counters Yangzijiang, Cosco and NOL, I think NOL is relative more stable.

NOL has been consolidating near the bottom and has been keeping its head above the critical level of 1.00. Although there is a descending triangle seems to be forming but the triangle is formed near the bottom, the probability is lower. If the descending triangle really comes into play, the potential target could be 0.50 for NOL and that would also mean the global economy is very gloomy.

Genting

Genting SP in my opinion does not look very good and pretty dangerous, especially when the double top looks like it is in play.

I would advise people with longs in this counter to cut small unless you already have a CLEAR plan of what you from this counter.

The potential target of Genting, based on the double top pattern, it will be 1.12, which is a new low for Genting as well.

Be careful in this counter guys.

Capitaland

Capitaland has been falling quite furiously and have started falling way before STI.

The significant lower highs and lower lows are clear bearish signals. In addition, it broke the rising trendline support on Friday with exceptional high volume. Capitaland could be supported in the near future with the strong confluence of levels between 2.90 - 3.05 which also around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.

However, in my own opinion, Capitaland could have more room for further downside especially when there is such strong selling pressure for this counter.

The 3 local banks - DBS, UOB, OCBC

The three banks have much in common. With the 3 of them forming a similar pattern as the STI. And the rebound in the STI on Friday was likely due to these 3 banks which both the UOB and OCBC hit the 200-day SMA and recovered, except for DBS it still have more some distance away from the 200-day SMA.

For DBS, should it turn lower, it has potential to hit at least the 14.80 to 15.00 level where the confluence of the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and the 200-day SMA. However, if the bears are very strong, DBS will likely to find itself near the 14.30 level where the 100% Fibonacci projection will hit the long-term rising trend line.

For UOB, it is at a strong support level of around 19.50 and was able to close above this level on Friday. Should UOB turn higher, it has to clear the level of around 20.50 in order to go much higher. Going lower, the next confluence of levels of around 18.35 seems pretty strong along with the 100% Fibonacci projection target.

For OCBC, looks like it is being supported at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the 200-day SMA along with a previous pivot point. However, if the global markets turn lower, it is likely to break this support region and bringing itself to around 9.30 to 9.38 range where the previous pivot resistances are and also the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.

The 3 banks are critical counters to watch to determine the direction of the STI. Having said that, it seems critical for the banks to hold their intermediate supports to prevent further selling.

In my opinion, I believe that STI has more room to the downside and that will also mean that banks have more downside too. So be cautious in trading the bank counters despite almost all of them are near a good support region.


Due to the lack of time and space, I will not be able to analyze every single counter in the SGX. I do not mind accepting any chart request for any counters, even counters in the NYSE, NASDAQ or S&P500.

Do note that all analysis are my personal views and opinions. If you would like to trade, please consult your authorized brokers and use all available analysis at your own discretion.

Good luck in the upcoming week in your trading. :)

Straits Times Index

Hi all,
I shall post STI chart and share my views.
Didn't know there are still some silent reader for my blog. :)

STI currently is at a support zone.
The 3240 level should hold the STI for now along with the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement.
The next support level will be 3200 where the 200MA will meet and with the light green rising trend line support.

Key notes for up coming week of 29/04/13 - 3/05/13

Hi all,

Do take note of the labour day on Wednesday. So if you're are Singapore stocks trader, maybe you would wan to reduce your trading sizes. Personally, I feel that  a mid-week holiday is not good for trading.

I know I have been forex bias in my posting. So I decided to post some views on the Singapore stock market.

STI - It broke out of the recent peak of 3330 and managed to closed above it. However, the price target of 3353 is met, so any upside could still be limited. In order for STI to go higher, Singapore markets might look at the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE). So for now, I would not suggest buying any blue chips counters.
As for pennies, I do not really study them, so I cannot really advise on them.

SSE - I remain bullish on this index in the short to medium term. SSE managed to hold well at current levels despite the negative numbers coming out from China. SSE is currently at the 200MA again. If this breaks, the next support will be 2140 as per mentioned in my previous post.

US Dollar - US dollar could be heading south in the short-term but in the longer term I still remain bullish. There numerous reasons such as the removal of QE or even increase of interest rates should the US economy improve but these monetary policies would not be implemented unless there are significant progress in the economy. US economy is still pretty much affected by the instability of the Europe economy especially when the numbers for Germany economy is not so good.

Currency Pairs
EUR/USD - Uncertain.
GBP/USD - Should be heading higher and hitting around 1.56 area.
AUD/USD - Short-term wise could be heading downwards, but still remain rangebound so could rise back to 1.05 area again.
USD/CHF - Short-term downside but will be rising to hit 0.95 area.
Yen pairs - All are consolidating.

I didn't have time to post charts. Hope you all understand. Will do the charts once I have a break which will be after my exams (After June).
Good luck in all your trading.

Xmas present to all readers

Since it Christmas today, I have decided to attached my FX report as a Christmas present for all, which I have been sending to my old subscribers for free every weekend.
Download FX Report 22/12/12 (Removed)
Sorry, I forgotten to turn on the public sharing for my doc previously. Now is accessible for all. :)


STI

STI has managed to cover the falling windows formed last year 2011 within the whole of this year. In addition, STI is positive of around 500+points from where it opened at the 2658 level for the year of 2012.

STI managed to convincingly broke the downward sloping trend line during the last leg of rally for the year with a 4 weeks straight rally. As of now, STI is definitely looking good in the longer term as lower lows and lower highs are formed and prices are well above the 20, 50, 100 and 200 moving average. The trading volume for STI is also pretty much “healthy”.

In intermediate terms, STI might retrace slightly after successfully covering the last falling window and the prices have to find support at the 20MA before moving higher.

Lastly, the next resistance level to watch will be 3227 level which was the August 2011 highs.

I have decided to do only the Straits Times Index analysis only. Stock counters analyses will be by per request as I do not have the time to analyze the so many stock counters.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!!!

STI outlook

Hi all readers.

Sorry I pretty busy with a lot of other stuffs.

However, I know many are curious about what is the short-term trend of STI.

You will get it below. :D

If you notice the first half of the year pattern, it is pretty similar to the current chart pattern that we are having now.
The fall the STI isn't good and I had warned of the possible fake breakout in STI 1-2 months ago.
Currently, STI is at the support of 2920, which might provide a small rebound as the distance from the price and 20MA is quite far apart.
However, I'm bearish on the longer trend of STI.
Therefore, it is better to look to short when it rebound to 2980 level.

Straits Times request

STI previously managed to test the resistance at around 3036 and came lower.
Currently, STI is slowly coming down from the overbought region but guess it is still not enough.
Resistances to watch out for will be: 3000 (minor), 2910 (strong), 2870 (very strong).
The 2870 level will be supported by the Fibo 50% as well as the 50ma and 200ma which seems to be moving up quite fast.

Straits Time projections

After Dow Jones dropped 274.88 points (2.22%) on Friday night due to bad data throughout US (kind of expected it to fall but didn't gamble on gut feelings), what can we expect from STI on Monday?

STI do have a support at around 2700 level which I expect it to gap down to that level on Monday.
I believe any rebound will a be short on most counters (even intraday; but shall see how market reacts & if China is able to hold us up).

STI broke the trend line support which is supposed to be strong (that's why it consolidate at the region).
And we can see a bear pennant is formed with projection target of 2560.
Before it can go there, there is a good support around 2600 - 2640 (Fibo 78.6%).

My advice is do not catch a falling knife as of now.
And do make sure you are able to cut loss fast - if you do not have a plan to avg it out in the first place.

Charts for Week 28/05 - 01/06

Straits Times

STI had a small rebound on Mon-Tues because it hit a strong support region - the upward channel support as well as the Fibo 61.8% support.
However, all gains were returned on Wednesday, after a late sell-off in US markets on Tues night.
The rebound wasn't strong enough to kick the bears away from attacking & it came back hunting.

With fears about Greece leaving the European countries, investors are choosing to lock in their positions and prefer to stay sideline until markets stabilize.

The support at 2760 is expected to be a critical support and must not break, else another wave of massive selling might be kicked in.
Breaking this support will send STI to new lows for year 2012 and will test its previous low of 2600 region.


GLP

GLP closed on Friday with a shooting star look alike candlestick after touching the upper band of the downward channel.
Also, GLP seems to have a Head & Shoulders pattern forming with the neckline at around 1.92 (purple horizontal line).
If GLP were to fall from here and break the neckline, there's a potential of it falling towards 1.755 level.
However, there is a support at around 1.86 as there will be the 200ma and the 50% fibo level to support it.

The light blue horizontal line is the price that I will look to short already - using my method which is still under testing.


Cosco Corp

For Cosco Corp, there's nothing much to show except highlighting past historical supports.
Several levels to take note are drawn in the chart above.

Olam

Olam looks very bearish.
I went into the past 10 years data for Olam and I saw a support in March 2008 which it managed to bounce off and went higher.
The level where it bounced off was at 1.62 which is very near to the closing of Olam on Friday (1.655).
If this doesnt hold, then it will be the fibo support at 1.53 level.

Capitaland

Capitaland managed to hold above the round number of 2.4 for the past few trading sessions.
2.4 is also the fibo 78.6% support for Capitaland.
Best action for this counter is to wait for break up/break down.
Breaking of 2.4 will send Capitaland to test its previous support of 2.28.

Osim

Osim broke down of its upward sloping trend line support but it seems be well support around that region.
If Osim is able fight its way back to above the trend line, it might still be bullish for Osim.
Breaking down of 1.63 will most likely change the trend of Osim - most likely if STI breaks down.

SembMar

SembMar seems to be supported by the 200ma and the Fibonacci 38.2% level.
In addition, the Oct 2011 highs also act as a support - possible resistance turn support?
SembMar will continue its fall if 4.39 fails to support.

Amazon

Amazon had a super big gap up around 1 month ago due to its Q1 earnings beating estimates.
However, the effect followed for a day and died off.
Currently, it looks bearish and is within the rising window support (a very big support region).
I can't say for sure whether it will move down to cover its rising window support.
There's a good support at 208 levels - few fibo supports & March 2012 peak.
However, if overall markets' sentiments remain bearish, then I believe the support won't hold and we will only see a small rebound around that region.

Counters that ALOT of people will be interested to buy & their support levels.
1) Wilmar - 3.65 next support; 3.4 strongest support
2) Sakari - Fibo support of 1.355
DISCLAIMER APPLIES~~~
I never say buy ar!! Just let you all know the levels.


Have a great weekend ahead.

Analysis for 1st week of May

STI

STI was forming a ascending triangle with 3030 as the critical resistance.

If STI were to move lower on Monday, do watch the support level of 2970 which should be a critical support to watch. If it breaks lower, it would mean that the STI isn't that bullish anymore.

However, STI do have some support levels to watch for will be 2945 then 2905.

Week 23/04 - 27/04

STI

STI still remain in the big range of 2905 - 3036.
In terms of weekly chart, rounding top is seen.
The market sentiment still remains bullish due to the earnings season as well as the dividend season.
Correction is expected to come soon.
Strong support to watch will be around 2870 (100MA, 200MA and Fibo 61.8% level)

HSI

HSI looks short-term bullish as of now - managed to close above the 78.6% Fibo as well as 50MA.
It moved higher after touching the upward sloping support trend line (Red line) & 200MA.
HSI also shown a golden cross of the 100MA & 200MA.
Any long positions please watch when it comes close to the purple sloping down resistance line.

Wilmar

Wilmar cut up the 20MA on Thurs but went back below the 20MA on Friday.
It previously managed to moved up from the Fibo 23.6% Price level 4.77. Also highlighted http://tradeforthebetterfuture.blogspot.com/2012/04/week-0904-1304.html previously.
If Wilmar is able to go above the 20MA on Mon & Tues, there could be some short-term bullishness.

FNN

F&N  remains overall bearish - looking at the all the Moving Averages.
It managed to be still supported by the purple trend line support.
Resistance to watch will be round number 7, which might be a strong resistance for F&N.

Swiber

Swiber has been dropping after the spike in Feb.
As of now, Swiber is being supported by the 100MA.
Watch Swiber at the 200MA, it could be a strong support.
However, if this level is compromised, then do cut.


Interra

Interra looks bullish currently due to the rising moving averages.
Interra seems to be resting after the recent spike.
In terms of Fibo projections, if its rally is possible to continue, expect it to travel to around 0.60.
The purple sloping trend line could be a support trend line, else watch for the 50MA.
However, I do not advise buying now. Wait for it to have some profit-taking towards the 20MA before attempting to punt on it.


BAC

BAC has been falling from the peak which I highlight few months back http://tradeforthebetterfuture.blogspot.com/2012/03/bank-of-america-bac-requested-by-gn.html
BAC currently has a sloping down resistance.(Purple line).

Reason why I post to short on Thursday night:
1) It touched the sloping down resistance
2) BAC was consolidating within the black candlestick formed on 13/04/12. It managed to breakup on open but seems to be a fake breakout (which means more bearish). For this I was on the minute chart.
I wanted to short at a higher price but it didn't managed to go higher after dropping from the top on Thurs.

As for now, BAC looks bearish still.
If BAC were to fall again on Monday, a 3 black crow candlestick formation will be seen.
So I won't advise to catch a falling knife.
Maybe the Fibo 61.8% level of 8.12 could support the fall


Tiongwoon

Tiongwoon seems to be have some profit taking after the strong spike with high vol.
On Friday, a long upper shadow is seen and it ended as a doji.
I would advise to enter Tiongwoon when the price and the 20MA is closer (maybe 0.29?).
If Tiongwoon is to break 0.27, I believe it won't be so bullish anymore.
I may show horse back cannon now. But on 09/04 I saw the sudden surge in volume and I know a big rally could be coming.
Conclusion: Watch Tiongwoon daily transactions volume. 10k and above is relatively high.


Small advise to all.
This year the market is expected to remain bullish.
Therefore, its alright to enter strong companies (eg, blue chips) at around its 200MA and HOLD.
Of course do expect that the 200MA might be broken for awhile before coming back.
All the best to all. :)
DISCLAIMER APPLIES HOR!! 

Week 09/04 - 13/04

I will just be doing analysis on STI only because I have many requests of charts this week. So hopefully one of the counters is one that you're monitoring. :)
Do note that since there will likely be a gap down on Monday, it will showing the support levels of individual counters. And some counters there isn't much to say about it.

STI

STI is unable to break the strong resistance of 3036 and a triple top is seen.
STI have a strong support at the 2905 levels which was previously a stronng resistance last year.
If 2905 doesn't hold, we will have the support level of 2876 which is the 50% Fibo level, which also coincides with the 100MA as well as the 200MA.

DBS

DBS managed to close above the 50% Fibo level on Thurs.
However, if selling continues (highly possible), DBS will be facing a critical support level of 13.06 which coincides with the 100MA.

Wilmar

Wilmar did 2 times fake breakout for last month.
The resistance to watch out for will be around 5.02.
It has broken its support of 4.84 and will be testing its next support of 4.77.

F & N

F&N has very nice upward sloping support trend line (purple line) and on Thurs it managed to close just above this support.
If F&N were to break this trend line support, it might find support at around 6.48.
This counter remains bullish in the long run.

KepCorp

KepCorp is still unable to break its critical resistance of 11.1 with a ascending triangle is forming
Support to watch will be the purple trend line.
If the purple trend line doesn't hold, we will be looking for at 10.2 for support which will be the 61.8% Fibo level and also coincides with the 100MA.

CityDev

CityDev is still having problems break the 11.3x resistance and go higher.
On Thurs, it managed to close above the ascending triangle support & also the 61.8% Fibo level.
Next support to watch out will be 10.34 which is the 50% Fibo level and the 100MA & 200MA might be moving up to support CityDev as well.

Kepland

Kepland has broke down of its upward sloping trend line.
A H&S pattern seems to be in play also.
Next support to look out for will be around 3.29 which coincides with the 50MA.

Capitaland

Capitaland support to watch out for will be 2.96 which coincides with the 50MA.
Next support will be around the 50% Fibo level of 2.83-2.86.

CapMallsAsia

Supports level to watch out will be 1.54 (coincides with 50MA) then 1.455 which will be a previous strong support.

China MinZhong

Previously CMZ got resisted by the 200MA and came lower to support at Fibo 50% level.
If CMZ is break below 0.97, its likely that it will test support of 0.94 (100MA) then 0.905 (Fibo 38.2).
If CMZ is able to break above the 200MA and hold above, it will test the previous high resistance of 1.175.

UOL

UOL has been trading with a range of 4.64 to 4.84.
On Thurs it managed to close above the 50MA.
If UOL managed to breakdown of the trading range, the next support to watch out will be around 4.5 which will be the 50% Fibo level and coincides with the 200MA.

SunVic

Currently, SunVic is consolidating around the 78.6% Fibo level.
Going up, SunVic will be facing the falling window resistance of 0.435 to 0.465 (also the 50% & 61.8% Fibo levels)

Sound Global

Sound Global is currently at strong support with the upward sloping trend line (purple line) and the 100MA as well as the 200MA acting as a support for Sound Global.
If this support breaks, its likely that a strong selldown might occur and may test support of 0.55 level (50% Fibo).

Remember I highlighted the unusual high vol occurring in Big Caps and something big is going to happen last weekend.
Looks like it was for the worse and not for the better.
After 5 days, looks like we will witness a strong selldown on Monday.
Of course we do hope that the market will digest the news by then.