It has been awhile...

It has been almost 2 years from my last post.

Decided to do this post because everybody is writing about the recent crazy volatility in the financial markets, so I shall follow suit.

So the key question in everyone's mind - ARE THE MARKETS TURNING BEARISH?

My answer will be it will short to mid-term bearish but longer term trend is still quite bullish though the tide could be changing.

Why? The answer is all in the below DJ30 (Dow Jones) chart.

DJ30 Weekly

One simple question - Does this weekly chart look bullish or bearish? Even beginners will know the answer. So there you go.

I have been expecting a correction for this major uptrend but honestly speaking I was not expecting DJ30 to have a drop of more than 1000 points in a day. Perhaps this major fall is because of the break of the weekly upward trendline accompanied by global fears on slowdown in the 2nd largest economy, China.

Nevertheless, the DJ30 has moved more than 12k points (or approximately 400%) from the lowest in 2008. So this correction is long overdue. The most significant correction throughout the last 6-7 years was only the one in year 2011.

Ok. So enough about the historical introduction. Let's analyze what I expect to happen going forward.

1. Most likely we would not be breaking new highs (at least for till end of 2015) and so a lower high is expected.
2. Volatility will continue and investors are escaping leading to panic selling, which even the slightness clue of weak economy will lead to more selling.
3. Strong resistance between 16300 to 16500.
4. Going lower, target will be 14700 to 15300, with 15300 being a very strong support currently.
5. Limelight continues to be with China and perhaps US rate hike (though factored in already).

I shall briefly cover where EUR/USD is heading towards as well.

As shown in the chart below, EUR/USD is in a downward parallel channel for a very long period of time and it has bounced off from the lower trendline.

Due to fact that the below chart is a monthly chart, the key resistance and supports identified cannot be taken with a pinch of salt. Going north, resistance will be at 1.18 to 1.19 region as it was a key support region many years back and the Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% will be located there as well.

EUR/USD Monthly

The views above is quite long-term but we are very close to the key resistance levels, thus it is worth to highlight. Short to mid-term wise, I'm expecting EUR/USD to retrace slightly especially after the massive buying and thereafter the bullishness will likely to continue.

Lastly, on the Singapore STI. My personal view is that Singapore stock markets remained very week as compared to the foreign markets, especially in industries relating to shipping and oil. Some observations I have 'felt' from the Singapore markets.

1. Labour market seems to be tightening a fair bit.
2. Economic data are not impressive especially with much more spending from the Government on SG50 and election year.
3. And technically on the index itself, we are so close to the 2011 lows.

All the above are my personal views and disclaimer applies.

Trade safe and huat!

USD is likely to take a rest and rebound next week

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

Looking cross-referencing the daily charts of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD, it is likely that the dollar could be rebounding after falling substantially for the few weeks due to the US Government shutdown and the "not-stopping" QE3 speculation by the markets due to weaker data.

From the charts above, it is notable that prices has hit major resistance levels, and especially GBP/USD which has declined much more than EUR/USD due to the fact that there is a big bear bat pattern identified.

Potential area for target will GBP/USD will be the region between 1.59 to 1.595 & for EUR/USD will be the region 1.36 then 1.345.

FX analysis - Week 290713 - 020813

Last week the USD broke the 8200 level after testing it a few times.
This week I expect the USD to retest the 8200 level as a resistance before falling further.

For the FX majors, I expect
1) EUR/USD to retrace to 1.318 before attempting any longs to follow the trend
2) GBP/USD to retrace to 1.53 before attempting any longs to follow the trend
3) AUD/USD remains range bound between 0.900 to 0.935. Will have to be careful if the range is broken.
4) USD/JPY to fall further to between 97.0 - 97.5 level.
5) USD/CHF remains supported by the Fib786 at around 0.925.

Volatile week ahead with US Q2 GDP and NFP data coming.
Good luck and be safe.

Notes for FX Majors for Week 220713 - 260713

- Could be potentially have a short-term upside for both EU and GU to test 1.32 and 1.53 respectively before falling.

- As for AU, it is most likely to be falling to retest the support of around 0.9 level. It remains range bound and resisted by the falling channel.

- USD/JPY, it seems like more upside is coming. However, how the election results will affect the Japanese Yen is still a mystery.

- For the Dollar against the Swiss Franc, it definitely looks like it will be heading down in the short-term to test the level of around 0.935. On the mid-term, Usd/chf looks like it will move up higher.


** The US Dollar Index do looks like it will move lower to test the 82.00 level. So the views above for EU, GU and UC are pretty much in line.

Turn for EUR/USD coming?

EUR/USD

EUR/USD have been falling since last Thursday after ECB kept interest rates unchanged and the rising US dollar due to better NFP numbers.

Currently, EUR/USD is in a strong support zone. I do not expect EUR/USD to break this support zone easily and I am expecting at least a rebound for EUR/USD from this zone this week or latest next week.

The critical level to watch will be 1.2657, and if this level is broken, be careful for more downside.

EUR/USD & GBP/USD 1HR analysis

EUR/USD

As mentioned last week that the light blue zone will be able to hold the EUR/USD from falling further and has seen to consolidating around the area. Based on the 1hr chart, there is a possibility that EUR/USD might trend slightly lower to flush out longist before rebounding higher. Will be looking out for signals to go long on this pair.

GBP/USD

Despite GBP/USD bounced off  strongly from the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement on Friday night, there is still a possibility that GBP/USD will head towards 1.51 before rebounding higher. Will be looking out for signals to go long on this pair.


The strength in USD for the past 2 weeks has been strong and has made EUR/USD and GBP/USD to trend much lower. With reference to other USD pairs such as USD/JPY and USD/CHF, there is a good possibility that the US Dollar is likely to trend slightly higher before coming down. This implies that EUR/USD & GBP/USD might fall slightly lower before turning up.

Do note that all analysis are my personal views and opinions. If you would like to trade, please consult your authorized brokers and use all available analysis at your own discretion.

Good luck in the upcoming week in your trading. :)

EUR/USD Analysis

EUR/USD

Daily

4HR

1HR

The EUR/USD has retraced from the highs for the past week mainly due to the strong rally in the US Dollar. The reason for the strong rally in US Dollar can be read from here.

Currently, the EUR/USD is being support at the 50% daily Fibonacci retracement level and the 78.6% 4hr Fibonacci retracement level. In addition, it have also reached the 61.8% 4hr Fibonacci projection level. A clear reversal signal will valid a long on this pair.

Should it go trend lower, the range of between 1.30 - 1.3055 (the light blue region) should be able to hold it from falling further where the 61.8% daily Fibonacci retracement level and the 61.8% 4hr Fibonacci projection level is located as well.

If EUR/USD is able to rebound from the support areas mentioned above, there is a good possibility that it might at least head towards the 1.35 level or higher.

To increase the probability of trading this pair and for those who believe in Harmonics trading, there is a Cypher Bull pattern (shown below) formed and have already hit the entry level.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I did not have enough time to analyze the other Forex Majors pairs and will try to do so during the next weekends. Stay tune to my blog for any potential trade updates which I might post throughout the upcoming trading week.

Lastly, do note that all analysis are my personal views and opinions. If you would like to trade, please consult your authorized brokers and use all available analysis at your own discretion.

Good luck in the upcoming week in your trading. :)

Key notes for up coming week of 29/04/13 - 3/05/13

Hi all,

Do take note of the labour day on Wednesday. So if you're are Singapore stocks trader, maybe you would wan to reduce your trading sizes. Personally, I feel that  a mid-week holiday is not good for trading.

I know I have been forex bias in my posting. So I decided to post some views on the Singapore stock market.

STI - It broke out of the recent peak of 3330 and managed to closed above it. However, the price target of 3353 is met, so any upside could still be limited. In order for STI to go higher, Singapore markets might look at the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE). So for now, I would not suggest buying any blue chips counters.
As for pennies, I do not really study them, so I cannot really advise on them.

SSE - I remain bullish on this index in the short to medium term. SSE managed to hold well at current levels despite the negative numbers coming out from China. SSE is currently at the 200MA again. If this breaks, the next support will be 2140 as per mentioned in my previous post.

US Dollar - US dollar could be heading south in the short-term but in the longer term I still remain bullish. There numerous reasons such as the removal of QE or even increase of interest rates should the US economy improve but these monetary policies would not be implemented unless there are significant progress in the economy. US economy is still pretty much affected by the instability of the Europe economy especially when the numbers for Germany economy is not so good.

Currency Pairs
EUR/USD - Uncertain.
GBP/USD - Should be heading higher and hitting around 1.56 area.
AUD/USD - Short-term wise could be heading downwards, but still remain rangebound so could rise back to 1.05 area again.
USD/CHF - Short-term downside but will be rising to hit 0.95 area.
Yen pairs - All are consolidating.

I didn't have time to post charts. Hope you all understand. Will do the charts once I have a break which will be after my exams (After June).
Good luck in all your trading.

EUR/USD bull bat look alike.

EUR/USD has somewhat a bull bat pattern.
However, the point C did not touch the 61.8% retracement level.
Nevertheless, it is still a valid pattern to trade on, especially when the 127% Fibonacci expansion and 88.6% Fibonacci retracement coincides.

But before the price could hit the D, there is support where the 100% Fibonacci expansion and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement coincides. In my personal view, coupled with an indicator, this support might not hold. I can be wrong too.

Since the bat pattern is not really a perfect pattern, I might wait for the price to come into my green daily support zone instead.


Below is the chart showing a strong support on daily chart of EUR/USD which could might cause the bat pattern to fail.

EUR/USD

Will be looking out to long EUR/USD on 1HR confirmed long signal.
This 4HR support zone is a small and good area to long.
And the stop loss is pretty small.

Update:
EUR/USD break support without having a 1hr confirmed long signal.
More downside is expected.

Possible resistance levels for some recovery before seeing a further downside. (24/10/12)

1) DJ30 - 13230-13270
2) EU - 1.3015 - 1.3030
3) GU - 1.5990 - 1.6005
4) UJ - 79.90 - 80.05

DJ30 and EU

Eur/Usd 1H

DJ30 1H

Some charts 290812 @ 1152pm

EUR/USD

Potential double top.









USD/CHF

Potential double bottom.

DJ30

Waiting for downward channel breakout.

DAX

Still resisted by the downward sloping trend line.

Eur/Usd was an good opportunity

Watch the lines drawn.
It was a double breakout.
Both the channel & resistance.
It even presented many opportunities to long.
Congrats to those who longed. :)