It has been awhile...

It has been almost 2 years from my last post.

Decided to do this post because everybody is writing about the recent crazy volatility in the financial markets, so I shall follow suit.

So the key question in everyone's mind - ARE THE MARKETS TURNING BEARISH?

My answer will be it will short to mid-term bearish but longer term trend is still quite bullish though the tide could be changing.

Why? The answer is all in the below DJ30 (Dow Jones) chart.

DJ30 Weekly

One simple question - Does this weekly chart look bullish or bearish? Even beginners will know the answer. So there you go.

I have been expecting a correction for this major uptrend but honestly speaking I was not expecting DJ30 to have a drop of more than 1000 points in a day. Perhaps this major fall is because of the break of the weekly upward trendline accompanied by global fears on slowdown in the 2nd largest economy, China.

Nevertheless, the DJ30 has moved more than 12k points (or approximately 400%) from the lowest in 2008. So this correction is long overdue. The most significant correction throughout the last 6-7 years was only the one in year 2011.

Ok. So enough about the historical introduction. Let's analyze what I expect to happen going forward.

1. Most likely we would not be breaking new highs (at least for till end of 2015) and so a lower high is expected.
2. Volatility will continue and investors are escaping leading to panic selling, which even the slightness clue of weak economy will lead to more selling.
3. Strong resistance between 16300 to 16500.
4. Going lower, target will be 14700 to 15300, with 15300 being a very strong support currently.
5. Limelight continues to be with China and perhaps US rate hike (though factored in already).

I shall briefly cover where EUR/USD is heading towards as well.

As shown in the chart below, EUR/USD is in a downward parallel channel for a very long period of time and it has bounced off from the lower trendline.

Due to fact that the below chart is a monthly chart, the key resistance and supports identified cannot be taken with a pinch of salt. Going north, resistance will be at 1.18 to 1.19 region as it was a key support region many years back and the Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% will be located there as well.

EUR/USD Monthly

The views above is quite long-term but we are very close to the key resistance levels, thus it is worth to highlight. Short to mid-term wise, I'm expecting EUR/USD to retrace slightly especially after the massive buying and thereafter the bullishness will likely to continue.

Lastly, on the Singapore STI. My personal view is that Singapore stock markets remained very week as compared to the foreign markets, especially in industries relating to shipping and oil. Some observations I have 'felt' from the Singapore markets.

1. Labour market seems to be tightening a fair bit.
2. Economic data are not impressive especially with much more spending from the Government on SG50 and election year.
3. And technically on the index itself, we are so close to the 2011 lows.

All the above are my personal views and disclaimer applies.

Trade safe and huat!

USD is likely to take a rest and rebound next week

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

Looking cross-referencing the daily charts of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD, it is likely that the dollar could be rebounding after falling substantially for the few weeks due to the US Government shutdown and the "not-stopping" QE3 speculation by the markets due to weaker data.

From the charts above, it is notable that prices has hit major resistance levels, and especially GBP/USD which has declined much more than EUR/USD due to the fact that there is a big bear bat pattern identified.

Potential area for target will GBP/USD will be the region between 1.59 to 1.595 & for EUR/USD will be the region 1.36 then 1.345.

Charts analysis 19-10-13

Dow Jones is currently consolidating within a very wide range of around 1000 points. Unless a breakout happen, it will be better to be doing range play. And it is pretty obvious that DJ is at a high region, although it has potential to go towards 16k however please exercise caution on taking huge long term positions in the equity markets now.

STI does have a head & shoulders (HNS) pattern that is developing and prices is near the neckline which could act as a resistance area. Aggressive traders could look for a potential close above 3255 and considering longing it, else a close above 3275 would be safer. On another note, STI hns pattern is formed at the top, therefore the probability of it working out is much lower.

The 3 Singapore bank counters are moving pretty much in the same boat, with all consolidating within a symmetrical triangle and it might take some time before breaking out either side. Among the banks, DBS is stronger technically, with prices remaining above 20, 50, 100 & 200 moving average. So if one is to invest, pick the stronger one.

Kepcorp currently do have a HNS pattern forming and prices are exactly at the neckline and with the 200 moving average acting as a resistance. Should prices close above 10.92, chances for it to move towards 11.2x will be highly likely.

Investment Opportunities (Long-term)
The following counters are the ones I recommend for one to include in their portfolio for long term investments.
1) Biosensors - hitting my 50% discount mark and long-term fundamentals remain sound
2) Cosco Corp - Shipping counters took a hit and have not recover significantly since 2008. I understand Yangzijiang has ran and NOL is much weaker in fundamentals therefore Cosco could likely be the better choice. Shipping businesses will pick up when the global economy starts to grow further.
3) Suntec Reits - Suntec Reits has been giving slightly lower dividend due to the upgrading that it has been doing at its exhibition halls and rents could be much greater after the upgrading projects are done.
4) Sabana Reits - Sabana Reits remains as an attractive reits investment due to its high dividend yield (approx 8% p.a). Chances are that price equilibrium might occur and pushing its price up and making its yield to 6-7%.

Please note that all these analyses are my personal opinions and do please consult your authorized stock brokers for advice and trades.

Will be doing a great range of analysis during this weekends.

Finally I have gotten a break from school therefore I'm going to reward my readers with a full range of analysis from STI stocks, market indices and Forex.
They will be done selectively with greatest potential.

I have reopened my chatbox to ensure all are free to express their requests and opinions.

Thank you for all the support that you all have given me throughout these period.

Chart Request

Opening up for any chart analysis requests from Forex, Stocks and Indices.
Given my limited time, I can only do so much analysis. So first come first serve.

Support my friends!

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US Dollar movements in the short to mid term

US Dollar

US Dollar is potentially still remain moving in the upward parallel channel.
In addition, US Dollar is coming close to a range of good support levels from the 200SMA to the confluence levels highlighted in red.

Should the US Dollar rebound higher, it would be a positive note and will act as a catalyst for market indices to go higher.