It has been awhile...

It has been almost 2 years from my last post.

Decided to do this post because everybody is writing about the recent crazy volatility in the financial markets, so I shall follow suit.

So the key question in everyone's mind - ARE THE MARKETS TURNING BEARISH?

My answer will be it will short to mid-term bearish but longer term trend is still quite bullish though the tide could be changing.

Why? The answer is all in the below DJ30 (Dow Jones) chart.

DJ30 Weekly

One simple question - Does this weekly chart look bullish or bearish? Even beginners will know the answer. So there you go.

I have been expecting a correction for this major uptrend but honestly speaking I was not expecting DJ30 to have a drop of more than 1000 points in a day. Perhaps this major fall is because of the break of the weekly upward trendline accompanied by global fears on slowdown in the 2nd largest economy, China.

Nevertheless, the DJ30 has moved more than 12k points (or approximately 400%) from the lowest in 2008. So this correction is long overdue. The most significant correction throughout the last 6-7 years was only the one in year 2011.

Ok. So enough about the historical introduction. Let's analyze what I expect to happen going forward.

1. Most likely we would not be breaking new highs (at least for till end of 2015) and so a lower high is expected.
2. Volatility will continue and investors are escaping leading to panic selling, which even the slightness clue of weak economy will lead to more selling.
3. Strong resistance between 16300 to 16500.
4. Going lower, target will be 14700 to 15300, with 15300 being a very strong support currently.
5. Limelight continues to be with China and perhaps US rate hike (though factored in already).

I shall briefly cover where EUR/USD is heading towards as well.

As shown in the chart below, EUR/USD is in a downward parallel channel for a very long period of time and it has bounced off from the lower trendline.

Due to fact that the below chart is a monthly chart, the key resistance and supports identified cannot be taken with a pinch of salt. Going north, resistance will be at 1.18 to 1.19 region as it was a key support region many years back and the Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% will be located there as well.

EUR/USD Monthly

The views above is quite long-term but we are very close to the key resistance levels, thus it is worth to highlight. Short to mid-term wise, I'm expecting EUR/USD to retrace slightly especially after the massive buying and thereafter the bullishness will likely to continue.

Lastly, on the Singapore STI. My personal view is that Singapore stock markets remained very week as compared to the foreign markets, especially in industries relating to shipping and oil. Some observations I have 'felt' from the Singapore markets.

1. Labour market seems to be tightening a fair bit.
2. Economic data are not impressive especially with much more spending from the Government on SG50 and election year.
3. And technically on the index itself, we are so close to the 2011 lows.

All the above are my personal views and disclaimer applies.

Trade safe and huat!

Charts analysis 19-10-13

Dow Jones is currently consolidating within a very wide range of around 1000 points. Unless a breakout happen, it will be better to be doing range play. And it is pretty obvious that DJ is at a high region, although it has potential to go towards 16k however please exercise caution on taking huge long term positions in the equity markets now.

STI does have a head & shoulders (HNS) pattern that is developing and prices is near the neckline which could act as a resistance area. Aggressive traders could look for a potential close above 3255 and considering longing it, else a close above 3275 would be safer. On another note, STI hns pattern is formed at the top, therefore the probability of it working out is much lower.

The 3 Singapore bank counters are moving pretty much in the same boat, with all consolidating within a symmetrical triangle and it might take some time before breaking out either side. Among the banks, DBS is stronger technically, with prices remaining above 20, 50, 100 & 200 moving average. So if one is to invest, pick the stronger one.

Kepcorp currently do have a HNS pattern forming and prices are exactly at the neckline and with the 200 moving average acting as a resistance. Should prices close above 10.92, chances for it to move towards 11.2x will be highly likely.

Investment Opportunities (Long-term)
The following counters are the ones I recommend for one to include in their portfolio for long term investments.
1) Biosensors - hitting my 50% discount mark and long-term fundamentals remain sound
2) Cosco Corp - Shipping counters took a hit and have not recover significantly since 2008. I understand Yangzijiang has ran and NOL is much weaker in fundamentals therefore Cosco could likely be the better choice. Shipping businesses will pick up when the global economy starts to grow further.
3) Suntec Reits - Suntec Reits has been giving slightly lower dividend due to the upgrading that it has been doing at its exhibition halls and rents could be much greater after the upgrading projects are done.
4) Sabana Reits - Sabana Reits remains as an attractive reits investment due to its high dividend yield (approx 8% p.a). Chances are that price equilibrium might occur and pushing its price up and making its yield to 6-7%.

Please note that all these analyses are my personal opinions and do please consult your authorized stock brokers for advice and trades.

Major Market Indices

DJI & SNP500

Both the Dow & SNP500 are similar patterns, therefore I have analyze both of them together.

Generally speaking, both indices are still on the mid to long term bull trend.
However, in the short term, there could be some selling pressure coming in. Especially on Friday, both indices got resisted by the 20-day SMA with significant volume. In addition, there was a last hour sell-off on the both the indices on Friday, which personally I believe it is not a bullish sign.

Going lower, the Dow will retest the previous low of around 14550 and SNP500 will retest the previous low of around 1560. We will have to look out whether the 100-day SMA will be able to hold both indices again. If both were to break their previous lows, watch out for the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Watch out for the 50% Fibonacci retracement region as well, but the probability of reaching there is not as high.

Hang Seng

The Hang Seng Index dropped very quickly over the last few weeks but managed to recover during the last week of June, mainly due to the Shanghai Stock Exchange.

Currently HSI is in a rebound phase from a very oversold region. Going forward, HSI is facing a series of resistance at around the 21000 level where a falling gap is seen along with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement as well as the 20-day SMA. If the 21000 resistance level is broken, then next level to watch will be around 21500.

Nikkei 225

Nikkei fell sharply from the 16000 level and has been consolidating between 12500 to 13500 level.

On Friday, Nikkei managed to break the 13500 resistance and also break out of the symmetrical triangle. Nikkei looks ready to go higher but the 50-day SMA and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level will resisting Nikkei from going higher.

All in all, Nikkei is still bullish in the mid to long term, but whether it can break the 16000 level to form a new high is still a question mark.

Side note: Nikkei chart look similar to Apple chart in the past.  


Do note that all analysis are my personal views and opinions. If you would like to trade, please consult your authorized brokers and use all available analysis at your own discretion.

Good luck in the upcoming week in your trading. :)

DJ30 and EU

Eur/Usd 1H

DJ30 1H

Some charts 290812 @ 1152pm

EUR/USD

Potential double top.









USD/CHF

Potential double bottom.

DJ30

Waiting for downward channel breakout.

DAX

Still resisted by the downward sloping trend line.

Some review

Made some good calls on DJ30 recently. :)
Those who are following me on Skype definitely know about it.
I also did posted it on my blog sidetabs. So remember to check my blog often.

Bad call was the USD/JPY.
I called for long at 930am today but I cancel the long call to exit longs at 1pm.
Well, it did fall after I posted but wasn't a big fall.
And when I wasn't paying any attention to it, USD/JPY shot up big time.

Nice call on GBP/USD at 530pm to watch for signal to short. and signal came at 8pm hourly candle. :)

DJ30 retracement

Look at the breakout of the channel.
Awesome short - 100points there about.

Dow Jones Industrial turning points

Dow Jones has successfully break the support and has a bear flag in play.
Where is the next support we are looking at?

The round number 12000 will be a psychology support but I do not expect it to be very strong.
 What I'm looking out for will be 11900 then followed by 11650 levels.
Both levels are prior support/resistances with Fibonacci level supports.

The 11650 level will also be the bear flag projection target as well.

12/03 - 16/03

Dow Jones

Dow Jones has breakdown the upward sloping trendline but it wasn't a strong signal because this trendline can be easily broken.
There's strong profit taking on Tues which resulted in long black candlestick - for the first time DJI retreated 1% for the year.

Currently DJ is trading within the long black candlestick. A break up/break down will determine its direction.
DJ now is  bearish in my view as the top has been formed - not able to break 13k psychological level.
And it have some profit-taking ytd late night after hitting the resistance and forming the a small shooting star.

Conclusion is that bearish signals are showing, not just 1 but a few, thus the chances of Dow jones to fall is higher.
Note: if DJI turns lower from here, it will have short-term lower high formed. And watch for lower low, if it is formed, it could mean tat short to mid term trend has turned.

STI

Have been observing STI very closely esp on Friday. Weakness is seen in the intraday charts.
Bearish signals:
1) Closed at its low on Friday, below its 20MA.
2) Shooting star is observed with avg vol, watch on Monday for confirmation.
3) Lower high, lower low trend has been seen which means that short to mid term the trend is bearish.
4) Downward sloping resistance showing. (Green line)


NOL

NOL is forming a symmetrical triangle shown with the purple lines. A breakup/breakdown will confirms its direction.

Breakup target: 1.515

Breakdown target : 1.265

For now I'm bearish biased because personally I feel that market is about time to have some correction. We can't be expecting the market to continue rising in one straight line.

But to support my biased views , I have signals that are telling me it is bearish not plain guessing.

Charts tells everything.

Quick analysis on 31/02/12

Quick view on the markets.

Dow Jones bounced off the downward sloping trend line and 20DMA. And also managed to close above the upward sloping trend line.

How do I get the trend lines, see zoom out view here.

This shows that the bulls are still strong and fighting everything to keep the market above the upward sloping trend line.

As for STI, it broke out the resistance level last Friday but yesterday closed way below the resistance level which doesn't confirms the signal to long.

Speculative view on STI:
It may move higher to test the resistance again. But note that profit-taking will be strong today as some players are hitting their contra period.

Action: FIFO; or sideline. As highlighted last Friday, pennies will be in play and are still in play.

20/01

Dow Jones

When Dow Jones(DJ)  has successfully break up of the long-term downward sloping trend line (Blue Line), it was a signal to be ready to long.

Currently, it has broke the support turn resistance trend line (Red Line). If this line can support DJ, it would mean that DJ will be in a long-term bull run.

Actions: Long near the support (Red Line) & cut loss if it breach the support with high volume.

Noble Group

Noble group has broke out of its trading range with increasing volume. Now noble is facing a resistance at around 1.29 which coincides with the fibo 38.2. Noble has a big gap to close, which will be very difficult.

Watch out for the 100ma which could be the next strong resistance level.

Action: Watch for any pullback to 1.23 to long. Cut loss will be below the upward sloping green line.'

SembCorp

Sembcorp is on a great momentum and has broke the support turn resistance trend line (Purple line). It has a strong resistance at around 4.75 which is near the fibo 78.6. 

But it has formed a hanging man look alike candlestick on Friday. If next Wed it has a bearish candlestick, it would mean a short signal. If SembCorp is to break the two lines (Purple & Red), it will have lots of selling pressure.

Action: Wait for bearish candle then short. Target Price for short is near the purple line. Cut loss will be around 4.6 which is the high of the hanging man. Do note that this action will be higher risk cause you're going against the strong bull trend in STI.

18/01

Just analyze some indices and counters.

 STI

IndoAgri

Dow Jones

S&P500

Bank of America (BAC)

Disclaimer applies!!

Analysis for Europe & US markets

US DJI has been resisted by the level of around 12285 and was not able to hold it well above that level.

Stochastic seems to be turning downwards.

Probability of DJI to come down further is high.

Support to take note will be around 11700.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

US S&P500 is forming a possible symmetrical triangle.

And it has been resisted by its 200MA.

Stochastic is showing signs of turning down.

The chances of S&P500 to come down is high.

Do look out for the breakdown of the lower trend-line support as massive selling may occur if it show break.

Support to look out for will be 100MA(around 1200 level) if selling were to occur.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UK FTSE 100 currently is trading in range.

It is resisted by the 200MA and support by the 100MA.

Look to short at 5600 and long at 5338 levels.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Germany DAX is forming a possible symmetrical triangle.

Any breakup or breakdown out of the trend-line will determine the direction.

Chances of DAX breakdown is high given the uncertainty in the markets and DAX is showing a bearish divergence.

Do look closely cause DAX being the leader of EU will pull the other markets along with it.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Personally I feel that the good news that has been coming out from US seems too good to be true.

Trade with care. :)