Charts analysis 19-10-13

Dow Jones is currently consolidating within a very wide range of around 1000 points. Unless a breakout happen, it will be better to be doing range play. And it is pretty obvious that DJ is at a high region, although it has potential to go towards 16k however please exercise caution on taking huge long term positions in the equity markets now.

STI does have a head & shoulders (HNS) pattern that is developing and prices is near the neckline which could act as a resistance area. Aggressive traders could look for a potential close above 3255 and considering longing it, else a close above 3275 would be safer. On another note, STI hns pattern is formed at the top, therefore the probability of it working out is much lower.

The 3 Singapore bank counters are moving pretty much in the same boat, with all consolidating within a symmetrical triangle and it might take some time before breaking out either side. Among the banks, DBS is stronger technically, with prices remaining above 20, 50, 100 & 200 moving average. So if one is to invest, pick the stronger one.

Kepcorp currently do have a HNS pattern forming and prices are exactly at the neckline and with the 200 moving average acting as a resistance. Should prices close above 10.92, chances for it to move towards 11.2x will be highly likely.

Investment Opportunities (Long-term)
The following counters are the ones I recommend for one to include in their portfolio for long term investments.
1) Biosensors - hitting my 50% discount mark and long-term fundamentals remain sound
2) Cosco Corp - Shipping counters took a hit and have not recover significantly since 2008. I understand Yangzijiang has ran and NOL is much weaker in fundamentals therefore Cosco could likely be the better choice. Shipping businesses will pick up when the global economy starts to grow further.
3) Suntec Reits - Suntec Reits has been giving slightly lower dividend due to the upgrading that it has been doing at its exhibition halls and rents could be much greater after the upgrading projects are done.
4) Sabana Reits - Sabana Reits remains as an attractive reits investment due to its high dividend yield (approx 8% p.a). Chances are that price equilibrium might occur and pushing its price up and making its yield to 6-7%.

Please note that all these analyses are my personal opinions and do please consult your authorized stock brokers for advice and trades.

Charts for Week 28/05 - 01/06

Straits Times

STI had a small rebound on Mon-Tues because it hit a strong support region - the upward channel support as well as the Fibo 61.8% support.
However, all gains were returned on Wednesday, after a late sell-off in US markets on Tues night.
The rebound wasn't strong enough to kick the bears away from attacking & it came back hunting.

With fears about Greece leaving the European countries, investors are choosing to lock in their positions and prefer to stay sideline until markets stabilize.

The support at 2760 is expected to be a critical support and must not break, else another wave of massive selling might be kicked in.
Breaking this support will send STI to new lows for year 2012 and will test its previous low of 2600 region.


GLP

GLP closed on Friday with a shooting star look alike candlestick after touching the upper band of the downward channel.
Also, GLP seems to have a Head & Shoulders pattern forming with the neckline at around 1.92 (purple horizontal line).
If GLP were to fall from here and break the neckline, there's a potential of it falling towards 1.755 level.
However, there is a support at around 1.86 as there will be the 200ma and the 50% fibo level to support it.

The light blue horizontal line is the price that I will look to short already - using my method which is still under testing.


Cosco Corp

For Cosco Corp, there's nothing much to show except highlighting past historical supports.
Several levels to take note are drawn in the chart above.

Olam

Olam looks very bearish.
I went into the past 10 years data for Olam and I saw a support in March 2008 which it managed to bounce off and went higher.
The level where it bounced off was at 1.62 which is very near to the closing of Olam on Friday (1.655).
If this doesnt hold, then it will be the fibo support at 1.53 level.

Capitaland

Capitaland managed to hold above the round number of 2.4 for the past few trading sessions.
2.4 is also the fibo 78.6% support for Capitaland.
Best action for this counter is to wait for break up/break down.
Breaking of 2.4 will send Capitaland to test its previous support of 2.28.

Osim

Osim broke down of its upward sloping trend line support but it seems be well support around that region.
If Osim is able fight its way back to above the trend line, it might still be bullish for Osim.
Breaking down of 1.63 will most likely change the trend of Osim - most likely if STI breaks down.

SembMar

SembMar seems to be supported by the 200ma and the Fibonacci 38.2% level.
In addition, the Oct 2011 highs also act as a support - possible resistance turn support?
SembMar will continue its fall if 4.39 fails to support.

Amazon

Amazon had a super big gap up around 1 month ago due to its Q1 earnings beating estimates.
However, the effect followed for a day and died off.
Currently, it looks bearish and is within the rising window support (a very big support region).
I can't say for sure whether it will move down to cover its rising window support.
There's a good support at 208 levels - few fibo supports & March 2012 peak.
However, if overall markets' sentiments remain bearish, then I believe the support won't hold and we will only see a small rebound around that region.

Counters that ALOT of people will be interested to buy & their support levels.
1) Wilmar - 3.65 next support; 3.4 strongest support
2) Sakari - Fibo support of 1.355
DISCLAIMER APPLIES~~~
I never say buy ar!! Just let you all know the levels.


Have a great weekend ahead.

Week 23/04 - 27/04

STI

STI still remain in the big range of 2905 - 3036.
In terms of weekly chart, rounding top is seen.
The market sentiment still remains bullish due to the earnings season as well as the dividend season.
Correction is expected to come soon.
Strong support to watch will be around 2870 (100MA, 200MA and Fibo 61.8% level)

HSI

HSI looks short-term bullish as of now - managed to close above the 78.6% Fibo as well as 50MA.
It moved higher after touching the upward sloping support trend line (Red line) & 200MA.
HSI also shown a golden cross of the 100MA & 200MA.
Any long positions please watch when it comes close to the purple sloping down resistance line.

Wilmar

Wilmar cut up the 20MA on Thurs but went back below the 20MA on Friday.
It previously managed to moved up from the Fibo 23.6% Price level 4.77. Also highlighted http://tradeforthebetterfuture.blogspot.com/2012/04/week-0904-1304.html previously.
If Wilmar is able to go above the 20MA on Mon & Tues, there could be some short-term bullishness.

FNN

F&N  remains overall bearish - looking at the all the Moving Averages.
It managed to be still supported by the purple trend line support.
Resistance to watch will be round number 7, which might be a strong resistance for F&N.

Swiber

Swiber has been dropping after the spike in Feb.
As of now, Swiber is being supported by the 100MA.
Watch Swiber at the 200MA, it could be a strong support.
However, if this level is compromised, then do cut.


Interra

Interra looks bullish currently due to the rising moving averages.
Interra seems to be resting after the recent spike.
In terms of Fibo projections, if its rally is possible to continue, expect it to travel to around 0.60.
The purple sloping trend line could be a support trend line, else watch for the 50MA.
However, I do not advise buying now. Wait for it to have some profit-taking towards the 20MA before attempting to punt on it.


BAC

BAC has been falling from the peak which I highlight few months back http://tradeforthebetterfuture.blogspot.com/2012/03/bank-of-america-bac-requested-by-gn.html
BAC currently has a sloping down resistance.(Purple line).

Reason why I post to short on Thursday night:
1) It touched the sloping down resistance
2) BAC was consolidating within the black candlestick formed on 13/04/12. It managed to breakup on open but seems to be a fake breakout (which means more bearish). For this I was on the minute chart.
I wanted to short at a higher price but it didn't managed to go higher after dropping from the top on Thurs.

As for now, BAC looks bearish still.
If BAC were to fall again on Monday, a 3 black crow candlestick formation will be seen.
So I won't advise to catch a falling knife.
Maybe the Fibo 61.8% level of 8.12 could support the fall


Tiongwoon

Tiongwoon seems to be have some profit taking after the strong spike with high vol.
On Friday, a long upper shadow is seen and it ended as a doji.
I would advise to enter Tiongwoon when the price and the 20MA is closer (maybe 0.29?).
If Tiongwoon is to break 0.27, I believe it won't be so bullish anymore.
I may show horse back cannon now. But on 09/04 I saw the sudden surge in volume and I know a big rally could be coming.
Conclusion: Watch Tiongwoon daily transactions volume. 10k and above is relatively high.


Small advise to all.
This year the market is expected to remain bullish.
Therefore, its alright to enter strong companies (eg, blue chips) at around its 200MA and HOLD.
Of course do expect that the 200MA might be broken for awhile before coming back.
All the best to all. :)
DISCLAIMER APPLIES HOR!! 

Week 02/04 - 06/04

Scroll to the bottom of this post for a crucial information. :)


STI

STI has been consolidating and trading within a range for the past 1 month plus.
STI is still well above the 20MA which means the market remains bullish.
Most likely if STI breaks below the 50MA, it will mean a change of trend.
For now, nothing much can be derived from the charts.


HSI

HSI could be moving in a channel with critical support of around 20200 levels to watch out.
It could also have a descending triangle pattern forming but its still too early to confirm this formation.
If HSI were to breakup/breakdown of the parallel channels, it could show its direction.


Yanlord

Yanlord recently bounced off its support of 1.24 which was a previous strong resistance.
Currently, Yanlord forming a descending triangle (watch red lines).
Yanlord also has a mid-term upward sloping trend line support (purple line), which is also close to the 1.24 level.
Conclusion will be that the level of 1.24 is very critical for Yanlord.


Cosco

Cosco has been resisted by its 200MA for 1 month plus.
Currently, a descending triangle is being formed in Cosco.
Support to watch out for will be around 1.12 level.
A bullish signal shown will be that its 50MA recently cut above its 200MA.


YangZiJiang

YZJ is consolidating around the 1.325 level which coincides with the 20MA.
YZJ has a good support at around 1.215 level.
As for now, nothing much can be derived from the charts except that the 50MA is running up to act as a support.


Hi-P

Last week I highlighted that Hi-P is facing major resistance at 1.04.
http://tradeforthebetterfuture.blogspot.com/2012/03/hi-p-stx-osv-requested-by-pk.html
True enough it was not able to break the resistance.
In terms of Fibo Projections, it has a resistance of 1.04 as well.
Currently, it could be supported at around 0.97 level.
My speculative view: If Hi-P is able to bounce of 0.97 support it has good potential to go to 1.095 level.
Disclaimer applies.


STX OSV

STX OSV is still consolidating within in a tight range as mentioned last week.
http://tradeforthebetterfuture.blogspot.com/2012/03/hi-p-stx-osv-requested-by-pk.html
STX OSV is supported by a upward sloping trend line (green line).
This counter remains bullish in the long-run.

CWT

CWT is currently consoliodating.
Levels to watch out will be 1.26 and 1.32 for either breakup/breakdown.

Something big is going to happen soon. WHY?
Watch those big caps - DBS, OCBC, UOB, Kepcorp, SGX, Sembmar, Sembcorp, CityDev, SIA.
They have unusual high vol on Friday.

Shorting counters

For now, I'm looking to short for short-term only.
Counters - DBS, Cosco, Yanlord

Do note that overall trend should be still bullish.
Shorting is for quick profits.


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Update Dated 01/03/12 7:42pm
Yanlord --> Close: 1.32, Open: 1.375, Highest: 1.39, %Change: -4.3%
Cosco --> Close: 1.17, Open: 1.2, Highest: 1.20, %Change: -2.9%
DBS --> Close: 14.18, Open: 14.19, Highest: 14.35, %Change: -0.1%

Call was made yesterday night. Could have earned some $ if vested.
DBS also could have taken some profits but depends on entry price.

Charts tells everything.